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Qualitative forecast of the 2019 cereal harvest: MED-Amin report

The 2019 cereal harvest forecast exercise - the third year of this initiative - was carried out in a shorter time than in previous years and with very good participation from the MED-Amin member countries. It has become an operational monitoring platform, providing timely and relevant information, even qualitative, on the current cereal season (soft wheat, durum wheat and barley). Early assessment of future agricultural production is an essential element of market management, particularly for net importing countries with high inter-annual variability, which must best manage their grain supply and food security.

The MED-Amin network focused on the continuation and finalization of the prospective study of the 2019 wheat and barley harvest in collaboration with the European Commission's Joint Research Center. This report, based on data collected in mid-May 2019, reveals unfavourable or even bad conditions in the western part of the Mediterranean basin, and good or even exceptional conditions in its central and eastern part. Whether for the cultivation of soft wheat, durum wheat or barley, the general conditions are favourable in France and Turkey (main producers) and in Albania, Algeria, Egypt, Greece, Italy and Lebanon. They are even exceptional in Tunisia, which benefited this year from significant rainfall. On the other hand, they are bad in the three western countries - Spain, Portugal and Morocco - which have suffered from a recurrent lack of water and pronounced and high temperatures since the beginning of the campaign.


Evaluation of the MED-Amin network

In parallel with this activity, the evaluation of the MED-Amin network conducted by CIHEAM and the French Ministry of Agriculture is continuing. A mid-term meeting was held on 22 June in Paris in the presence of the three evaluators, Pascal Bergeret, Placido Plaza and Marie-Hélène Le Hénaff (CIHEAM) and representatives of the French Ministry of Agriculture (DGPE, DGER, FranceAgriMer).

The first elements of this evaluation, which will continue until the end of the summer, show a significant interest from the network's focal points. Developments and improvements are expected in terms of governance, bilateral exchanges between countries, and especially political porting.

The current lack of risk related to food security in the Mediterranean area could diminish the interest in MED-Amin's approach. Given the climate change and the uncertainty of global agricultural markets, the challenge is therefore to strengthen the involvement of the member countries.

Download the report :

MED-Amin Press release:


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